Two figures are currently the de facto frontrunners for the still non-existent 2016 GOP presidential nomination contest: Wisconsin wunderkind and math-challenged pseudo-intellectual, Paul Ryan; and the man constitutionally incapable of balancing his own checkbook, Florida’s favorite cipher, Marco Rubio.

Rubio made his career on the successful bet that, in a Republican primary, Tea Party dog whistles could derail one of Florida’s biggest political giants. As one of of only eight Senators to vote against the first step in averting the so-called fiscal cliff, Rubio doubled down on that bet.

Oddly, it was Ryan who went the other way. Ryan made his career by churning out factually suspect and arithmetically inaccurate reams of paper that purport to provide political heft to the economic and budgetary delusions of the far right. Yet… it was Ryan who made the daring bet that things would be different in 2016. That he could win his party’s presidential nomination and also cast votes based on some tenuous grasp of the fiscal situation at hand. It was a bold move, and I’m sure there was some behind the scenes wrangling with Boehner (maybe involving threats to Ryan’s continued chairmanship of the Budget Committee? I don’t know, I’m guessing), but it was still an interesting and bold gambit.

In short, Rubio bets that the GOP stays crazy for the forseeable future, while Ryan bets that (necessary) political evolution will speed up in time for his to make a play for the nod.

I never thought I’d say this, but I hope Ryan’s right.