So, you’re sitting at home on Tuesday, wondering what to watch.

I know you say, I’ll watch election returns.

Cool!

Except, wait! I’m not going to stay up all freaking night for results in places like Colorado and Nevada to come in!

I just wish there were some, I don’t know, bellwethers, on the east coast that would tell me what’s happening before, say 3am.

As it happens, there are. And I can help you find them.

Is Obama going to win? Look for Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

A win in Virginia suggests Obama is on track to win. Things could still go wrong, but you can go to bed feeling pretty comfortable that you know who won.

Florida? If Obama wins Florida, that’s it. He won. He’ll probably get 315+ EVs (electoral votes – 270 are needed to win).

North Carolina? Yeah, go to sleep. Obama’s getting 325+ EVs (and he’s also winning Florida). And if Romney wins North Carolina, but it’s close, then that’s probably the equivalent to Obama winning Virginia, which is the say, maybe he doesn’t get 330 EVs, but a reasonably 285+ is in the cards. You can post on Facebook something like, ‘Man, Romney could barely seal the deal in North Carolina. Game over. No way he’s winning Ohio or Wisconsin. Better luck in 2016 with Chris Christie, my GOP’er friends.’

But what could tell if you Romney’s winning? You could look for a 5 point for Romney in Florida, but I’m going to suggest looking at Pennsylvania. Not for a Romney win, but for Romney coming close. If Romney comes with 2 points of Obama in Pennsylvania, you can tell your Facebook friends, ‘I don’t know. Look at those numbers out of Pennsylvania. I think maybe non-college whites are breaking for Romney by a bigger than expected margin. This is going to be a long night for Obama.’ When you drop phrases like ‘non-college whites,’ your friends will be, like, whoa, that dude is smart! S/he must read, like, newspapers.’