Florida Democrats should be worrying about two things and neither of them involve moving a lot of resources into helping Obama win Florida.
The Obama campaign will put a lot of resources into swing areas like Tampa Bay and Orlando, as well as in areas rich in Democratic voters like Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
Yes, Obama losing Florida would be a blow to the state’s Democrats – and a big one. But state and local party organizations need to trust his campaign to handle that.
And while there are some winnable seats out at the Congressional level (one in Central Florida, along with potential upsets against David Rivera, assuming a strong candidate can be fielded, and against Vern Buchanan who already faces a strong opponent in Keith Fitzgerald), the fact is that, speaking locally of the Tampa Bay area, Castor is not in trouble (in terms of protecting Dem incumbents) and neither Young nor Bilirakis are going to come anywhere close to losing in November.
So what should be the priorities?
Number one is getting Bill Nelson re-elected. Losing the last statewide Democrat elected would be a terrible blow. He needs to win (and if you want a reason to make Obama a priority, I will offer this one – Nelson’s fortunes will likely rise and fall with Obama and an Obama loss by more than a point or two in Florida would likely mean a loss by Nelson, as well).
Number two is picking up some legislative seats. This doesn’t mean trying to take back a chamber in this cycle. It means exactly what I wrote – some legislative seats. A few. Enough to start getting a foothold. Enough to make sure that moderates in the Senate have some allies and the bare minimum in the House to engage in some parliamentary maneuvers (which is to say, hold a total of forty seats or one third of the total seats).
Finally, and this is something for next year, elect a Democrat as mayor of St. Pete.
That last one is crucial. The mayor of the state’s fourth largest city instantly becomes a figure of statewide figure importance. That person becomes a potential candidate for statewide office or for Congress (once Bill Young retires). Add this hypothetical Democrat to a mix that includes Dave Aronberg (who is running Palm Beach County Attorney), Dan Gelber, Loranne Ausley, and maybe even Alex Sink and Charlie Crist (?!), and all of a sudden you have a pretty good bench ready to go when opportunities to win statewide and federal office come up.
With a Democratic mayor in St. Pete and with Bob Buckhorn across the bay in Tampa (not to mention Alvin Brown in Jacksonville), the landscape for Democrats will look a lot different.
This has long been something I’ve harped on, but we’ve got to stop this process of candidates running for offices for which they are not ready. Nina Hayden could be a solid candidate for a local office, but come November, she is going to find that her quixotic campaign for Congress against Bill Young is between one and two million dollars short of being viable.