Firstly, Florida is fertile ground for a resurgent Newt. It’s got a strong Tea Party presence. Its Republican primary electorate skews older, which means a lot more voters who will fondly remember Newt’s 1994 glory days.

But Florida is an expensive to run television ads based on the sheer number of markets and the relative expense of the bigger media markets and Mitt has more money.

The real question is the impact of those votes already cast. Vote by mail began before Newt won South Carolina and, until the other day, Mitt was leading in Florida.

A close race probably goes to Mitt, with his greater financial resources and the impact of those ‘pre-surge’ mail ballots.