Soon to be termed Republican State Senator Mike Bennett (R-Bradenton) says he will file to run against Congresswoman Kathy Castor as soon as tomorrow.

Bennett thinks that the newly drawn 11th Congressional District will include his home in Manatee County. I am somewhat doubtful of this – partly because I actually believe that voter approved redistricting reform will survive the GOP’s self-interested attempts to overturn and otherwise ignore the will of the people of Florida. My suspicion is that district will wind being entirely in Hillsborough County (it currently contains parts of Pinellas and Manatee). Bennett is betting that new 11th will contain less Hillsborough (and probably no Pinellas – on that we agree) and more Manatee. If the Fair Districts Amendment overwhelmingly passed by the voters of Florida is respected, I would read it as being implicitly supporting NOT having district cross county lines when not absolutely necessary. In other words, that the 11th (or some equivalent to it – the numbers may change) would be a purely Hillsborough district. That said I am happy to hear differing opinions.

Regardless, Bennett intends to run no matter what and says he and his wife will move if the new district doesn’t contain his current residence, though technically he doesn’t need to live in a particular congressional district in order to run for that seat.

Bennett could be a top tier recruit for the GOP, if the district is reasonably competitive after redistricting (right now, it really isn’t).

He’s the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, which doesn’t actually mean that much (the Senate Majority Leader is real power in the upper chamber), but you easily see a scenario where he overcomes the first hurdle to becoming a significant challenger – fundraising.

Like Mike Haridopolos, he could use his position in the state legislature to shake down corporations and lobbyists to make the maximum legal donation to his campaign. While that influence will basically die this time next year, if he stockpiles enough cash early on, the money will keep flowing (fundraising success begets more fundraising success – it’s the nature of how money flows).

He will also face a problem that a lot of other legislators have faced, and that is the fact that surprisingly few people actually know who they are. This is less of stumbling block in a Congressional race than in a statewide race (that’s why Dan Webster was able to win a Congressional seat, but couldn’t even make his way out of the primary for the U.S. Senate), but there is a good chance that most of his current legislative district (along with the majority of voters who might actually know who he is) will remain in what is currently the 13th District, represented by Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan.