Florida Democrats should be worrying about two things and neither of them involve moving a lot of resources into helping Obama win Florida.

The Obama campaign will put a lot of resources into swing areas like Tampa Bay and Orlando, as well as in areas rich in Democratic voters like Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

Yes, Obama losing Florida would be a blow to the state’s Democrats – and a big one. But state and local party organizations need to trust his campaign to handle that.

And while there are some winnable seats out at the Congressional level (one in Central Florida, along with potential upsets against David Rivera, assuming a strong candidate can be fielded, and against Vern Buchanan who already faces a strong opponent in Keith Fitzgerald), the fact is that, speaking locally of the Tampa Bay area, Castor is not in trouble (in terms of protecting Dem incumbents) and neither Young nor Bilirakis are going to come anywhere close to losing in November.

So what should be the priorities?

Number one is getting Bill Nelson re-elected. Losing the last statewide Democrat elected would be a terrible blow. He needs to win (and if you want a reason to make Obama a priority, I will offer this one – Nelson’s fortunes will likely rise and fall with Obama and an Obama loss by more than a point or two in Florida would likely mean a loss by Nelson, as well).

Number two is picking up some legislative seats. This doesn’t mean trying to take back a chamber in this cycle. It means exactly what I wrote – some legislative seats. A few. Enough to start getting a foothold. Enough to make sure that moderates in the Senate have some allies and the bare minimum in the House to engage in some parliamentary maneuvers (which is to say, hold a total of forty seats or one third of the total seats).

Finally, and this is something for next year, elect a Democrat as mayor of St. Pete.

That last one is crucial. The mayor of the state’s fourth largest city instantly becomes a figure of statewide figure importance. That person becomes a potential candidate for statewide office or for Congress (once Bill Young retires). Add this hypothetical Democrat to a mix that includes Dave Aronberg (who is running Palm Beach County Attorney), Dan Gelber, Loranne Ausley, and maybe even Alex Sink and Charlie Crist (?!), and all of a sudden you have a pretty good bench ready to go when opportunities to win statewide and federal office come up.

With a Democratic mayor in St. Pete and with Bob Buckhorn across the bay in Tampa (not to mention Alvin Brown in Jacksonville), the landscape for Democrats will look a lot different.

This has long been something I’ve harped on, but we’ve got to stop this process of candidates running for offices for which they are not ready. Nina Hayden could be a solid candidate for a local office, but come November, she is going to find that her quixotic campaign for Congress against Bill Young is between one and two million dollars short of being viable.

I love some of what Alan Grayson said while he was in Congress. He spoke out forcefully against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He spoke out against the failure of the Republicans to propose any meaningful plan to make sure every American has access to adequate, affordable healthcare.

But he was a terrible candidate.

There was little chance he would survive the terrible GOP wave of 2010 but there was every chance he could have made the sort of showing that put him within spitting distance of Webster (and therefore, given him a slim possibility of pulling it out). There was no good reason for him to have lost by 18 points and to not even have gotten 40% of the vote.

Or rather, there was a very good reason. He ran an awful campaign.

He can raise money, but in the new 9th district wherein he’s running, GOP’er John Quinones could beat him, even though the 9th was created to be a bit of Democratic vote sink (not too much of one, since that would violate the Florida Constitution since the passage of Fair Districts). John Quinones can probably raise respectable money based on his position on the Osceola County Commission and if Grayson looks to be repeating his 2010, you can bet that the RNCC will put enough resources into the district to keep things on an even keel, money-wise.

Maybe Grayson already has a campaign infrastructure, but unless he has a strong experience manager who knows how ‘manage’ candidates, things could go south fast. Someone who can keep Grayson’s most impolitic instincts from taking over, someone who will work with the candidate and the rest of the campaign staff to keep things not only ‘on message,’ but also to focus on those issues that resonate with the voters and to use a tone that doesn’t play into negative perceptions. It’s the difference between appearing as a bullying loudmouth and a blunt fighter for one’s values. The line between the two is finer than you think, which is why care needs to be taken. Two years ago, I don’t believe that happened.

Marco Rubio has been feverishly preparing himself to become the Republican nominee for vice-president, even as he goes through the motions of denying interest.

One has to suspect that his real interest is in being president in 2016, but that he sees the veep nod in 2012 as the best way to get himself in front of a possible Jeb candidacy that would vacuum away much of of his home state money and leave him a minor candidate.

He could run for president in 2016 as the ‘next in line’ by virtue of having been the veep nominee four years previously. While this would mean forgoing re-election to the Senate, with the 2018 governor’s race as a door prize, that might not be such a deterrent. And, of course, in the increasingly unlikely even Romney were to win… well, Rubio would be a sitting vice-president in 2020.

If Rubio is nothing but a junior Senator for the next four years though, well that has a way of sapping one’s star power pretty quickly. He’s not a real right wing rock star in truth, but someone who has recently played one on tv. He’s just a basic insider player, in truth,  and he’s smart enough to know that. Six years in the Senate will sap whatever enthusiasm people have for him and he’ll start 2016 behind a potential Jeb Bush candidacy.

By the way, I won’t pretend any of this is new or secret info. Adam Smith at the St Pete Times (still not going to call it the Tampa Bay Times) had this to say on the subject earlier.

Anyone else get a kick out of what a huge fail Jeb Bush’s endorsement of Romney turned out to be?

As I mentioned earlier, the whole endorsement already had a certain ‘day late and a dollar short’ aspect to it – right before Super Tuesday, it could have been a big deal. A few days before Louisiana (where polls have Mitt getting spanked) is kind of not a big deal.

But then the Romney campaign inflicted the whole Etch-A-Sketch debacle on itself and their big endorsement sank with nary a ripple across the media universe. Which probably suits Jeb just fine.

Also, anyone else wonder if Jeb is counting on the Mitt campaign being such a huge disaster that it torpedoes the career of whoever Mitt picks as his running mate? Because that would explain Jeb’s support of Marco Rubio for the veep nod – kill two birds with one stone by watching Obama win re-election, thereby leaving the White House open for himself in 2016, while Rubio’s brand gets prematurely poisoned by both the increased media scrutiny and association with Romney.

Maybe that’s a stretch, but it’s gives me chuckles to think about it.

I still say that Jeb wants to be president. I still say that Jeb understands that he can’t be president if a Republican wins in 2012 (because his last chance to run is probably 2016, so he needs an open seat). Therefore, Jeb doesn’t want a Romney to win.

In other words, all men are mortal, Socrates is man, therefore Socrates is mortal.

If Jeb had jumped in earlier, he would have given Romney real credibility among strong conservatives (as well as given Romney enough of a boost in Florida to raise him over 50%).

But what happened is that Jeb waited to jump in until after Romney’s inevitability had become clear. But, he also waited until after the situation had reached the point where Mitt would have no choice but continue on a long, painful, slog that will at least last until June and could very continue right up until the convention.

Had Jeb decided to jump in before Super Tuesday or at least before the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, he could have done some real good for the Romney campaign. But he didn’t.

He waited until his endorsement wouldn’t mean much.

Why? Because Socrates is a man.