Yes, the chatter about Jeb 2016 has begun (did it ever stop?).

2016 looks to be a particularly interesting bloodbath on the right. It will be Jeb’s last chance. It will probably also be Chris Christie’s last and best chance, as well. So unless one or both of them gives up on the dream, expect to see ’em in the ring.

And Jeb’s fellow Sunshine Stater… Marco Rubio? It won’t be his last chance, but it will likely be his best chance. The talk and enthusiasm will not have waned after years in office, the youthful (but not green) mystique will be there. And if a Republican wins in 2016 and he doesn’t run… well, but 2024, his moment will have passed.

First of all, let me say that no one could have predicted that this man’s actions would be a colossal waste of time and taxpayer money nor that his statements would be crazy, stupid, and wrong.

I say that as preface to noting that (and this will blow your mind, man!) (soon to be former) Congressman Allen West’s recount efforts and legal challenges have not worked.

As crazy as it sounds, Florida voters in that district did not choose to send back to Congress a man who just spent two years in Washington looking for Communists. And he checked everywhere, from the men’s bathroom in the east corner of the third floor of the Rayburn House Office Building all the way coat check counter on the south side of the United States Capitol.

Instead, they plumped for some moderate Democrat who opposes privatizing Social Security and Medicare.

Must have been voter fraud. Only reasonable explanation.

You won’t hear anyone from Tampa Bay actually use the phrase ‘Tampa socialite.’

Because ‘Tampa socialite’ is a genus that only people from some other place would ever think exists.

File it under ‘Sasquatch’ (which is entirely mythical, unlike the Loch Ness Monster, which is a real thing).

Count me as one of those who believe that Florida’ own John Mica will be granted a waiver by Speaker Boehner to keep his chairmanship of the House Transportation Committee.

Mica is an old school, pork barrel patronage kind ‘o Congressman. The sort of establishment type who will stick with Boehner. And Boehner needs the support of as many of those as he can round up to stave off the nonetheless inevitable backstab by Cantor or whoever else the rebellious youth of the GOP round up to push him out.

So, you’re sitting at home on Tuesday, wondering what to watch.

I know you say, I’ll watch election returns.

Cool!

Except, wait! I’m not going to stay up all freaking night for results in places like Colorado and Nevada to come in!

I just wish there were some, I don’t know, bellwethers, on the east coast that would tell me what’s happening before, say 3am.

As it happens, there are. And I can help you find them.

Is Obama going to win? Look for Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

A win in Virginia suggests Obama is on track to win. Things could still go wrong, but you can go to bed feeling pretty comfortable that you know who won.

Florida? If Obama wins Florida, that’s it. He won. He’ll probably get 315+ EVs (electoral votes – 270 are needed to win).

North Carolina? Yeah, go to sleep. Obama’s getting 325+ EVs (and he’s also winning Florida). And if Romney wins North Carolina, but it’s close, then that’s probably the equivalent to Obama winning Virginia, which is the say, maybe he doesn’t get 330 EVs, but a reasonably 285+ is in the cards. You can post on Facebook something like, ‘Man, Romney could barely seal the deal in North Carolina. Game over. No way he’s winning Ohio or Wisconsin. Better luck in 2016 with Chris Christie, my GOP’er friends.’

But what could tell if you Romney’s winning? You could look for a 5 point for Romney in Florida, but I’m going to suggest looking at Pennsylvania. Not for a Romney win, but for Romney coming close. If Romney comes with 2 points of Obama in Pennsylvania, you can tell your Facebook friends, ‘I don’t know. Look at those numbers out of Pennsylvania. I think maybe non-college whites are breaking for Romney by a bigger than expected margin. This is going to be a long night for Obama.’ When you drop phrases like ‘non-college whites,’ your friends will be, like, whoa, that dude is smart! S/he must read, like, newspapers.’